A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
